The Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto market concern and greed index produced by CryptoQuant Explorer fell to five factors over the weekend.
That is the worst investor sentiment in 4 years because the crypto winter of 2022. It is also one of many scariest states in market historical past, nevertheless it then rebounded barely over the weekend, reaching 8 factors as of this writing on Monday, February 16, 2026.
Related ranges existed solely in occasions of nice pressurethe underside of the bear market in 2018, the decline earlier than the beginning of the pandemic in 2020, the affect of the closure of the FTX cryptocurrency trade in 2022, and so forth.
On a scale of 0 to 100, ranges above 80 on this index replicate excessive greed within the Bitcoin market. However, a quantity beneath 20 signifies excessive concern.
“This reveals that this isn’t a lightweight precaution. “It is a mentality of give up,” emphasizes George Tung, an investor finest recognized on social networks as CryptosRus. “From a behavioral perspective, this quantities to basic loss aversion,” he famous in a Feb. 15 submit.
What does this sense encompass? “After a pointy decline, buyers favor security and delay re-entries to attend for affirmation. Sentiment usually lags value. Even after markets stabilize, confidence rebuilds slowly,” the analyst says.
On this situation, we now have a concern index and a greed index that point out excessive concern, however not at as low a degree as CryptoQuant. CoinMarketCap has a degree of 12, whereas Coinglass has a degree of 11, with each reaching a rating of 5 on completely different dates in February.
Every of those indicators measures market sentiment primarily based on quite a lot of information, together with volatility, futures markets, and messages on social networks. Nevertheless, CryptoQuant doesn’t make it clear precisely what parts are wanted to carry out the calculation.
Excessive promoting stress regardless of no “disaster”
Lowest level on concern and greed index These usually coincide with main gross sales and buy alternatives.. These durations happen earlier than Bitcoin’s large long-term positive aspects.
Though “excessive concern doesn’t assure rapid restoration,” it has traditionally marked “the early levels of the concern course of.” bottoming out«CryptosRus is defined. This idea refers to a recalibration of buyers’ positions and expectations.
“When crowds give attention to avoiding additional ache slightly than pursuing upside potential, markets typically find yourself nearer to depletion than growth. That feeling fades, and a brand new cycle quietly begins from there,” he explains.
Anyway, Excessive concern doesn’t imply Bitcoin can not fall in value. Actually, the market at all times reaches its winter backside in cryptocurrencies not when it’s on this state, however typically after not at excessive concern ranges.
Different crypto winters have seen retail panic prevail attributable to catastrophic occasions such because the FTX chapter and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the present excessive concern wouldn’t come up within the face of a panorama of such magnitude.
As an alternative, there was a recalibration of buyers’ positioning in several contexts. Amongst them, macroeconomic uncertainties and four-year historic patterns that may affect market sentiment stand out.
Historical past says 2026 will probably be bearish for Bitcoin
Bitcoin might flip bearish in 2026 if the basic four-year sample continues. Bitcoin at all times reaches the tip of its uptrend the 12 months after the halving. This may be seen beneath.
The latest halving, which halves the quantity of BTC issued each 4 years, was in 2024. The worth is presently buying and selling round $68,000 (USD), 46% beneath the all-time excessive of $126,000 set in October 2025.
Traditionally, crypto winters have seen costs drop by round 80%. Nevertheless, every has minor modifications. On this sense, BTC’s decline on this cycle will not be over butNevertheless, it’s much less extreme than earlier than.
James Ford, economist and director of funding group Pragmatic Investor, mentioned: 75% drop from historic most is achievable. CriptoNoticias experiences that the value will probably be lower than $40,000.
Nevertheless, you will need to observe that there isn’t a assure that previous occasions will repeat themselves. Actually, varied analysts declare that BTC’s crypto winter may very well be milder as a result of presence of institutional funding, which was not current earlier than.
