Bitcoin’s path to a new confirmed bull market has a specific price target it must overcome: $81,700. That’s the key takeaway from a new report by on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, which lays out a series of significant resistance levels the leading cryptocurrency must break through to continue its upward momentum.
After a powerful 24% rally over two weeks, Bitcoin’s price has stalled, trading in a range between $76,000 and $82,000. According to Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, the outlook remains positive, but significant hurdles lie ahead. "The trend is still constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way," Moreno stated in the firm’s Friday report.
Understanding the bitcoin bull market resistance
Before Bitcoin can even challenge the primary bull market indicator, it faces what Moreno calls the "nearest and heaviest on-chain supply resistance." This zone, sitting between $77,100 and $80,200, represents a formidable barrier. It’s a price range where long-term holders sold approximately 539,000 BTC within a 30-day period earlier this year.
This data highlights a critical aspect of on-chain analysis. The resistance isn’t just an abstract line on a chart; it’s a concentration of coins that were previously sold in this range.
Investors who bought lower may see this as a profit-taking opportunity, while those who entered the market at these levels during a previous peak may be looking to sell at their break-even point, adding to the selling pressure amid the current crypto market retreat.
Understanding this on-chain supply is crucial for traders. It provides a data-backed view of potential market behavior, moving beyond simple technical patterns. The sheer volume of Bitcoin sold in this narrow band suggests that any move higher will require substantial and sustained buying power to absorb the available supply from these sellers.
The $81,700 line in the sand for a bull market
The most critical level identified by CryptoQuant is $81,700. This price point corresponds to Bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, a long-term trend indicator that has historically served as a reliable arbiter between bear and bull markets. A decisive close above this line could give traders the confirmation they’ve been waiting for.
Historically, a sustained break above this moving average has signaled the "official" start of major bull runs. "A decisive break above it would confirm the new bull market and open room for a new leg up; a rejection keeps Bitcoin range-bound," the report explains.
The market already tested this theory in early September, briefly pushing past the level before being firmly rejected, proving its significance as a battleground.
CryptoQuant first noted in August that Bitcoin was entering the "initial phase" of a new bull cycle. However, it stipulated that a weekly close above this key moving average (then around $83,000) was necessary for full confirmation. The market’s inability to hold that level underscores the strength of the overhead resistance and the importance of the current consolidation period.
Beyond the first hurdle: Additional resistance zones loom
Even if Bitcoin successfully conquers the $81,700 level, the path higher is not entirely clear. CryptoQuant’s analysis points to further resistance zones that could stall momentum. The next major hurdle is pegged at $83,600, a level derived from the firm’s proprietary "3x Metcalfe band" model, which gauges Bitcoin’s value based on network activity.
This model has proven its relevance in past cycles. When Bitcoin first reached $100,000 in December 2024, its price was close to the 2x band. Furthermore, when the asset hit its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025, the 3x band was at $138,000, acting as a valuation ceiling.
These historical correlations suggest that the $83,600 level could be a significant point of contention for buyers and sellers, potentially reshaping investor hedge strategies if the price is rejected.
Should the market push through that, another layer of potential selling pressure waits at $88,700. This price corresponds to the upper band of CryptoQuant’s trader realized price model, which tracks the average price paid by active traders.
According to Moreno, "The upper band marks where trader profit-taking has historically emerged." This indicates that short-term market participants may be inclined to sell and lock in profits as the price approaches this zone.
What happens if bitcoin’s price falls?
While the focus is on breaking resistance, it’s equally important to identify key areas of support in case of a downward move. CryptoQuant’s report outlines two primary zones where buyers may step in to defend the price. The first line of defense is seen around $70,000, which aligns with Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average, another widely watched technical indicator.
A much stronger support floor, however, is located between $62,000 and $65,000. This zone is not just a technical level but an area of significant on-chain demand. According to the analysis, long-term holders accumulated a substantial 476,000 BTC within this price range this year.
This large accumulation signifies a strong belief in Bitcoin’s value at these levels, creating a robust demand wall that could absorb significant selling pressure.
This behavior from long-term holders is a cornerstone of market cycle analysis, as their accumulation during downturns often lays the groundwork for future market trends. A drop to this level could be seen by many as a prime buying opportunity rather than a reason for panic, providing a strong cushion against a deeper correction.
The broader outlook: A constructive but challenging path
Despite the formidable resistance levels, CryptoQuant’s overall assessment remains bullish. The current sideways price action is viewed as a necessary consolidation phase after the recent powerful rally. "The overall picture remains bullish; Bitcoin simply needs to digest the overhead supply and break its valuation ceilings before a new leg up can develop," Moreno concluded.
This period of digestion allows the market to build a stable base before attempting to break multi-year resistance levels. It shakes out weak hands and allows for the transfer of coins from short-term speculators to long-term holders, a dynamic often observed before a sustained uptrend. The battle between determined buyers and entrenched sellers is now clearly defined by the on-chain data.
For investors, the report provides a clear roadmap of what to watch for in the coming weeks. A decisive push and hold above $81,700 would be a powerful bullish signal, likely attracting a new wave of capital into the market.
Conversely, a rejection from this level could lead to a retest of the support zones at $70,000 or even the low $60,000s, offering another chance for accumulation before the next major attempt higher.