Blockchain data provider Bitquery released a comprehensive study on October 23, 2026, revealing that 74% of $752.5 million in reported gains on the Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun are effectively unreplicable for external copy traders. This investigation, which checked data on October 22, 2026, unmasked a significant hidden trading gap that undermines the profitability metrics widely used by investors, particularly concerning Pump.fun unreplicable gains.
The research scrutinized 3,170 wallet-token positions, each reporting gains exceeding $100,000 between October 2025 and August 2026. It concluded that only 26% of these substantial profits originated from conventional market transactions that followers could realistically mirror, casting doubt on the entire premise of replicating successful crypto trades in this volatile sector.
Understanding Pump.fun Unreplicable Gains
Bitquery’s extensive analysis peeled back the layers of reported profitability, exposing how the vast majority of large memecoin wallet gains are not derived from straightforward, replicable buy-and-sell orders. This significant portion, amounting to $558.6 million, stemmed from opaque activities, challenging the fundamental assumptions of many automated trading strategies.
The investigation identified several mechanisms behind this discrepancy. A substantial 51% of the sampled gains originated from wallets selling tokens received via transfers from other addresses, rather than through open market purchases. Additionally, 13% of the observed gains showed patterns indicative of potentially coordinated trading activities, often referred to as “wash loops.”
The role of token transfers
Token transfers represent a critical blind spot for copy traders. Bitquery pinpointed 1,579 profitable positions where the majority of tokens sold were received through direct transfers. These transactions do not generate a market signal that automated copy-trading systems can follow.
Of these transfer-driven profits, a staggering 1,104 could be linked directly or indirectly to the original token creators or intermediary wallets. This arrangement creates an illusion of success that is difficult for external observers to distinguish from genuine market-driven gains.
Coordinated activity and wash loops
Beyond simple transfers, Bitquery uncovered instances of coordinated trading, accounting for 278 “wash loops” among the top winners. These intricate schemes often involve a primary buyer closely tied to the seller or the token creator through direct financial links, inflating trading volume and creating a false sense of organic market demand.
A compelling example involved the Arena token, where one wallet spent a mere $4,223 yet recorded approximately $4.92 million in sales. Further investigation revealed another address, previously funded by the seller, was responsible for 99% of the buying activity during the holding period.
The seller had transferred over $1.4 million in Solana (SOL) to that buyer over the preceding two days, clearly illustrating a coordinated effort rather than organic market demand. The launch of new stablecoins highlights a different aspect of crypto innovation, one focused on stability rather than speculative memecoin gains.
The official list of specific profitable wallet positions or coordinated trading instances identified in the Bitquery study has not yet been publicly announced.
The Mechanics of Misleading Profits
The inherent structure of blockchain analytics and many copy-trading platforms inadvertently enables these deceptive profit displays. Profitability tracking typically calculates gains by subtracting recorded purchases from sales. When tokens are transferred, there’s no recorded purchase price for the receiving wallet, leading to an artificially inflated profit figure that skews leaderboards.
This issue isn’t just theoretical; it’s prevalent and appears to be growing. Bitquery observed that sales involving transferred tokens constituted seven out of every ten large wallet wins in August 2026. This trend marks a significant acceleration from previous months, where such cases remained below 100 monthly until July.
Distorted profitability calculations
The problem lies in how “profit” is defined at the address level versus the investor level. An investor’s true overall return includes the original acquisition cost, regardless of which wallet held the tokens. However, a copy trader monitoring only the selling wallet would only see the massive final sale, completely missing the crucial initial buy signal needed to enter at a comparable price.
This makes wallet leaderboards, which many investors use to identify “smart money,” potentially highly misleading. They showcase apparent profitability without indicating whether these returns are genuinely available to external investors attempting to mimic the activity.
Creator-linked transfers and temporary wallets
The study highlighted 423 creator-linked transfers involving additional signing addresses. These often involve complex arrangements where tokens are distributed through a network of temporary wallets before reaching the final selling addresses. This practice effectively obfuscates the true origin of the tokens and the genuine nature of the transactions.
For instance, in the case of the UOTF token, four temporary wallets each received nearly eight million tokens. These were subsequently forwarded to selling addresses in a coordinated move. One recipient then sold its holdings for $1.59 million, creating a substantial apparent gain without any corresponding market purchase signal for a copy trader.
Challenges for Crypto Copy Trading Platforms
Bitquery’s findings place significant pressure on crypto copy-trading platforms, such as GMGN, which market themselves on the ability to replicate successful trades. These platforms are designed to mirror observable market transactions. However, the prevalence of transferred tokens fundamentally breaks their core functionality, as there’s no “buy” action for a follower to copy.
GMGN’s own documentation includes warnings like “Didn’t buy” and “Sold > Bought,” indicating some awareness of these issues. But these indicators don’t resolve the underlying problem: they don’t confirm if the displayed gains were achievable by followers. The platform’s proportional selling feature, for example, only applies to tokens acquired through the copy-trading service, not externally transferred ones.
Automated systems and unreplicable signals
The reliance of automated copy-trading systems on clear purchase signals is their Achilles’ heel in this environment. A wallet receiving tokens via transfer offers no such signal, making it impossible for automated followers to enter a position at a comparable price point or at all. This creates a critical disconnect between reported success and replicable opportunity.
Even for conventional purchases, other hurdles exist. Platforms like GMGN allow users to set filters for liquidity, market capitalization, and transaction size, which can prevent orders from being copied. Transaction fees, slippage, and execution delays further diminish returns, especially in the fast-paced memecoin market. Blockchain transaction fees, a constant factor in crypto trading, further complicate profitability assessments for individual investors.
Platform limitations and real-world obstacles
Bitquery did identify instances of genuine, replicable profitable activity within its sample, such as a SOULGUY position that netted $3.3 million across 3,632 trades. But replicating such frequent and precise performance demands exceptional execution and competitive pricing, which is a tall order for any automated system, let alone individual followers.
The actual performance gap for copy traders remains largely unmeasured. Bitquery’s study didn’t track the real-world results of copy traders, and a substantial number of six-figure winning positions (2,943) occurred after its August cut-off. Future analysis tracking both successful and failed copy orders would provide a clearer picture of true executable profitability, a crucial metric that remains elusive.
Broader Implications for Memecoin Traders
The Bitquery study reinforces a long-standing understanding within the cryptocurrency space: the memecoin market, particularly on platforms like Pump.fun, is fraught with peril for the average retail investor. The allure of quick riches, often showcased by seemingly incredible wallet gains, masks a complex and often manipulated landscape.
Historically, profitability for traders on Pump.fun has been low. Data from April 2024 through late 2025 showed that most active traders consistently lost money, with monthly profitability rarely exceeding 50%. While April 2026 saw a high of 73.3% profitable traders, 96% of those profitable addresses earned less than $500, a stark contrast to the multimillion-dollar gains highlighted by Bitquery.
A history of high risk and low returns
This high-risk environment is further exacerbated by technical challenges like slippage and sandwich attacks. Between October 2025 and October 2026, 6.85 million sandwich attacks occurred on Solana, with 96% targeting Pump.fun memecoins, extracting an estimated $29.7 million from unsuspecting traders. These sophisticated exploits demonstrate a constant battle for profitability in this ecosystem.
Moreover, the vast majority of tokens launched on Pump.fun ultimately fail. A separate Bitquery study found that 79% of Pump.fun launches recorded no trades after their first day, and only one in 58 managed to graduate to a full trading pool. This illustrates the extremely speculative and high-attrition nature of the platform’s offerings, where quick profits are the exception, not the rule.
The creator-trader yield gap
There’s also a significant asymmetry in value capture on Pump.fun. The top 250 token issuers on the platform collectively amassed approximately $79 million. This “creator-trader yield gap” highlights how value often accrues to those launching tokens and early insiders, rather than secondary market participants who buy and sell on the platform in hopes of speculative gains.
For new entrants, understanding these dynamics is crucial. The promise of “smart money” often translates to a mirage, where apparent success is not just hard to copy, but fundamentally unachievable for those without insider access or the means to orchestrate similar complex transactions.
Navigating a Shifting Landscape
The Bitquery investigation serves as a critical warning for the Solana memecoin ecosystem and the broader crypto copy-trading sector. It urges investors to look beyond headline profitability figures and scrutinize the underlying transaction data. Superficial success on leaderboards doesn’t always equate to genuinely replicable trading opportunities, a lesson that could save millions for unwary participants.
As the cryptocurrency market matures, demand for transparent and verifiable trading signals will only increase. This study highlights an urgent need for platforms to develop more robust metrics that differentiate between organic market gains and those derived from internal transfers or coordinated activities. Without such clarity, the trust in automated trading tools will inevitably erode, particularly for the often-speculative Solana memecoin market.